Politics Lounge

[Infrared 20,649]

Not surprised but still interesting 

(Rhodium)

Now here is a county-level map of 2016 presidential election voting results:

(Rhodium)

Notice any similarities? Yeah. They are very close to identical.

Rhodium puts a number on it: “86% of the variation across counties in respondent’s belief that ‘global warming is mostly caused by human activity’ is explained by voting preference.”

 

 

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

Conservatives have a 22 point lead on Labour in the snap UK General Election

They're expected to take at least 50-60 seats from Labour, the Lib-Dems and the SNP - they're expected to have their lost UKIP vote share return and nearly double their lead over Labour. It'll be higher than the majority that Margaret Thatcher took in 1983. In fact the higher estimates suggest that her victory could be nearly on par with Tony Blair's in 1997. 

The general consensus is that she's going to have a landslide, the only question is how big the landslide is going to be. 

It could very well go higher, considering that in the Scottish Local elections, the Scottish Conservative party saw a 12 point swing in their factor - and they ended up picking up 127 council seats, they saw growth just about everywhere. That, in theory at least, means that at least some of Westminster's Scottish seats are vulnerable to the Westminster Conservatives. It could also mean that the Scottish Conservatives are consuming the Scottish Labour vote and UKIP, but there's no real way of knowing of this will play out. 

This populism thing, it truly is a thing of the Anglosphere

 

[Jake 19,503]

JFK's assassination files get declassified on October 26th, 2017  

I wonder if the government will release them or have a "threat to national security" to keep them classified  

[Vertigo-go 18,832]

On 16.05.2017 at 7:45 AM, Jake said:

JFK's assassination files get declassified on October 26th, 2017  

I wonder if the government will release them or have a "threat to national security" to keep them classified  

Fuck if they release them, get real

They can just release fabrications and pass them as the real thing. The most we could hope for is dirt on people that are now dead and irrelevant to the image of American politics. Agencies like CIA and FBI are still standing and have an image to uphold, and they were involved in that. The truth may come out when we're dead already, in about 70 years time at the earliest

 

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

I just still cannot believe that Donald Trump is President of the United States. 

It's just so surreal

 

[Infrared 20,649]

On 5/25/2017 at 2:12 PM, Mom said:

I just still cannot believe that Donald Trump is President of the United States. 

It's just so surreal

 

eh I knew he's not going anywhere until Congress gets serious - which isn't happening unless there's the mecca of evidence against him.

He hasn't done anything monumental except repeal a bunch of laws, a majority of which will come back with the next administration. 

 

His budgets are DOA and are just circle jerks for his constituents. He's constantly outgunned by actual leaders - whether it be Mexico, Canada, Germany.

 

I just continue on, at this point it's over-exposure. He's running out of ways to reinvent himself and if we all know America, they move on pretty quickly. 

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

3 minutes ago, Infrared said:

eh I knew he's not going anywhere until Congress gets serious - which isn't happening unless there's the mecca of evidence against him.

He hasn't done anything monumental except repeal a bunch of laws, a majority of which will come back with the next administration. 

 

His budgets are DOA and are just circle jerks for his constituents. He's constantly outgunned by actual leaders - whether it be Mexico, Canada, Germany.

 

I just continue on, at this point it's over-exposure. He's running out of ways to reinvent himself and if we all know America, they move on pretty quickly. 

It's not even any of that, I'm not even speaking in a political sense, I mean, it's the fact that I once saw him shave Vince McMahon's head at Wrestlemania.

 

[Infrared 20,649]

Just now, Mom said:

It's not even any of that, I'm not even speaking in a political sense, I mean, it's the fact that I once saw him shave Vince McMahon's head at Wrestlemania.

 

kii I'm hoping it won't be a thing that catches on. All these celebs and ceo's are hinting at running and in a few years I can only imagine how low we can take the presidency. Could you imagine Kanye as president  (he'd probably alienate the white vote though)

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

Just now, Infrared said:

kii I'm hoping it won't be a thing that catches on. All these celebs and ceo's are hinting at running and in a few years I can only imagine how low we can take the presidency. Could you imagine Kanye as president  (he'd probably alienate the white vote though)

The Rock/Tom Hanks 2020 teas

 

[Infrared 20,649]

wow the Georgia 6 Republican is dumb as rocks. I can just tell she's going to fuck up if she wins. But she's actually losing the polls for now. It's going to be close and she may win just because Republicans have been in power there for decades, but it also is a sign that 2018 and moreso 2020 will be a democratic wave of voting. Will it be enough? Who knows. But i'm glad people are going to vote. 

 

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/337089-poll-dem-ossoff-leads-by-7-in-georgia-house-race

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

The Senate map for the Democrats is really, really, really fucking bad

Despite the President's low approval number, the Republicans are still in position to pick up 10 Senate Seats - and maybe lose one (Nevada). 

 

 

 

[Infrared 20,649]

1 hour ago, Mamacita said:

The Senate map for the Democrats is really, really, really fucking bad

Despite the President's low approval number, the Republicans are still in position to pick up 10 Senate Seats - and maybe lose one (Nevada). 

 

 

 

Where are you getting receipts though. Not that the polls mean anything right now, but they are saying the opposite.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

and https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-almost-everywhere/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-2018-senate-elections-are-looking-bad-for-both-parties/

 

They most likely will pick up a few seats, but they definitely won't be close to 60 as most analysts are saying. 

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

9 minutes ago, Red said:

Where are you getting receipts though. Not that the polls mean anything right now, but they are saying the opposite.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

and https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-almost-everywhere/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-2018-senate-elections-are-looking-bad-for-both-parties/

 

They most likely will pick up a few seats, but they definitely won't be close to 60 as most analysts are saying. 

The problem with that type of polling is that it's a rolling average, it doesn't tend to go deeper. 

And you don't need rolling average polls to know that the map favors the Republicans. 

The individual numbers might paint a different picture, but I wasn't referring to polls, those change with the winds. 

Most of the set seats are safe, the Republicans are not going to take one of California's seats, and the Democrats are not going to take one of the seats in Alabama. That will effectively, with the states up in the air, leave the state of the Senate with 50 safe seats for the Republicans, and 38 safe seats for the Democrats. 

That leaves roughly 12 Senate Seats in play. 

So, let's give Nevada to the Democrats for hells sake, and that brings it up to 39-50

Democrats +1 (Nevada) 

Republicans

Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona (+6) 

That will leave Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maine, Florida. 

Now you're right, the odds of them sweeping the board are low, but factoring the piss-poor turn out for the left in Midterms, let's give them Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin. That will bring them to 59. 

And considering what happened in the last election, I wouldn't rule out them getting another one, maybe Maine or Pennsylvania. 

No, I don't suppose I don't have an professional recipiets, and a year is a long time from now. 

But with the default composition of the Senate, not factoring in the toss-ups, the fact that the Midterms are historically poor for Democratic Voter Turnout (I'll eat my shoe if they manage to get the Anti-Trump vote out in the midterms, in states like Indiana ), and the fact that all of the seats, with the exception of fucking Maine, are in red states, the odds favor the Republicans. 

I could be wrong, and feel free to bookmark me, but the Senate Elections are going to be a fucking bloodbath for the Democrats. 

And on the off chance that I'm wrong, I'll bet that they still control the Senate by a healthy margin. 

Feel free to drag me now

 

[Infrared 20,649]

18 minutes ago, Mamacita said:

The problem with that type of polling is that it's a rolling average, it doesn't tend to go deeper. 

And you don't need rolling average polls to know that the map favors the Republicans. 

The individual numbers might paint a different picture, but I wasn't referring to polls, those change with the winds. 

Most of the set seats are safe, the Republicans are not going to take one of California's seats, and the Democrats are not going to take one of the seats in Alabama. That will effectively, with the states up in the air, leave the state of the Senate with 50 safe seats for the Republicans, and 38 safe seats for the Democrats. 

That leaves roughly 12 Senate Seats in play. 

So, let's give Nevada to the Democrats for hells sake, and that brings it up to 39-50

Democrats +1 (Nevada) 

Republicans

Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona (+6) 

That will leave Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maine, Florida. 

Now you're right, the odds of them sweeping the board are low, but factoring the piss-poor turn out for the left in Midterms, let's give them Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin. That will bring them to 59. 

And considering what happened in the last election, I wouldn't rule out them getting another one, maybe Maine or Pennsylvania. 

No, I don't suppose I don't have an professional recipiets, and a year is a long time from now. 

But with the default composition of the Senate, not factoring in the toss-ups, the fact that the Midterms are historically poor for Democratic Voter Turnout (I'll eat my shoe if they manage to get the Anti-Trump vote out in the midterms, in states like Indiana ), and the fact that all of the seats, with the exception of fucking Maine, are in red states, the odds favor the Republicans. 

I could be wrong, and feel free to bookmark me, but the Senate Elections are going to be a fucking bloodbath for the Democrats. 

And on the off chance that I'm wrong, I'll bet that they still control the Senate by a healthy margin. 

Feel free to drag me now

 

no need to drag, I'm open to discussion. I don't mind hearing democrats will lose, I just wanted to see the reasoning behind it.

 

and to be fair this midterm will be remotely different because the left will turn out in bigger numbers than any other time in history. I've personally never seen such passion for a midterm election. 

 

The only thing now is that they need to start pushing at a local level because people have to remember that midterms are only happening in a few states. A majority of people in New Jersey didn't even vote in the primaries, not that it would've remotely changed anything, but it'll matter more in swing states. 

 

and I think once they start realizing Trump isn't bringing them jobs, it'll swing back to Democrats. Because for alot of rural folks in those states it was less about Obamacare and more about getting a good wage, and Trump isn't really doing anything to help the dying industry. 

 

and the special elections are showing signs that Democrats could give Republicans for their money. Maybe some in 2018, but definitely in 2020.  I think by the end of the year Democrats need to start going full force because they haven't built an identity other than, we lost, but we can do better than Trump. Voters needs more than that.

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

@Red

https://vtdigger.org/2017/06/22/sanders-lawyered-up-in-federal-probe-of-burlington-college/

Should we, or should we not chew on this in a full thread?

 

[Infrared 20,649]

1 hour ago, Mamacita said:

@Red

https://vtdigger.org/2017/06/22/sanders-lawyered-up-in-federal-probe-of-burlington-college/

Should we, or should we not chew on this in a full thread?

 

I'm not surprised. But not sure how far it'll go if it's just some indie Vermont website covering it. The Sanders are very good at spinning their image. Even though I've always found them questionable.

 

I wonder if the campaign and presidency was just a scheme to pay off loans  

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

23 minutes ago, Red said:

I'm not surprised. But not sure how far it'll go if it's just some indie Vermont website covering it. The Sanders are very good at spinning their image. Even though I've always found them questionable.

 

I wonder if the campaign and presidency was just a scheme to pay off loans  

I wouldn't be mildly shocked, something tells me that she doesn't quite drink the cool-aide as much as her husband does. 

But if she, or any of her associates, get Federally indicted, I can't wait for the Bernie-stans heads to explode ☺️ 

Knowing them, they'll find a way to blame it on Clinton and her minions

 

[Infrared 20,649]

20 hours ago, Mamacita said:

I wouldn't be mildly shocked, something tells me that she doesn't quite drink the cool-aide as much as her husband does. 

But if she, or any of her associates, get Federally indicted, I can't wait for the Bernie-stans heads to explode ☺️ 

Knowing them, they'll find a way to blame it on Clinton and her minions

 

Omg I spoke too soon. It's public.

http://thehill.com/homenews/news/339141-sanderss-wife-hires-lawyer-amid-bank-fraud-investigation

 

 

 

[Darth Sidious 11,696]

6 minutes ago, Red said:

Omg I spoke too soon. It's public.

http://thehill.com/homenews/news/339141-sanderss-wife-hires-lawyer-amid-bank-fraud-investigation

 

 

 

Delicious 

[Infrared 20,649]

Nancy Pelosi needs to step down as leader, not because of the 4 losses, but she's been incredibly out of touch this decade. But that can only happen when they find someone good to replace her. It's even worse to leave the spot empty. 

 

The problem with the DNC top members (Franken, Schumer, Warren, Booker, Harris) is that most of them have baggage in the media : that you need someone who is a fresh face or atleast someone not as known - like Kennedy perhaps