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HDD: Olivia, Billie, and Lil Nas X and More Are Favorites for AOTY Nominations

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Album of the Year is an intensely competitive category in any year, but the current crop of high-profile releases makes narrowing down the contenders especially challenging. We’ve broken out a handful we consider “favorites” and others that are strong contenders. We’ll take up the ones we regard as long shots in a separate discussion.

A caveat: Grammy will do what Grammy wants. Just because we think a particular selection should be a lock doesn’t mean it couldn’t be excluded (remember The Weeknd). And an album we’ve never heard of may well make its way to the inside track. Our picks are based on the hope that sanity will prevail.

 FAVORITES

Olivia Rodrigo, SOUR (Geffen): 2021’s biggest breakout thanks to mega-streams on singles like “drivers license” and “good 4 u” (not that stats count), Rodrigo delivered a solid, highly listenable album that showed range, creativity and a compelling point of view. The set was also among a handful of big releases underscoring that rock (in this case spiky alternative pop-rock) was poised to find a large new audience.

Lil Nas X, MONTERO (Columbia): The kid who rocked the planet with “Old Town Road” has grown into a cultural force whose gay-positive messaging is delivered with an irresistible sense of fun and a wide-ranging musicality even as it delves into painful questions of identity and connection. This project ticks every box that matters to Grammy.

Billie Eilish, Happier Than Ever (Darkroom/Interscope): Grammy adores Billie and lavished her with hardware in 2020 and 2021. She remains a vibrant, inventive artist, a persuasive performer and a genuine “influencer” by any metric. Though this album didn’t have quite the impact of her powerhouse debut, it seems likely that she’ll return to the short list.

Doja Cat, Planet Her (Kemosabe/RCA): 2021 saw Doja graduate from riveting artist with hot singles to full-blown superstar. She solidified that transition as host of the VMAs, where she was funny, glam and ingratiating—and a fierce performer. The stylistically diverse, groove-heavy Planet Her should be acknowledged as a true arrival.

GIVĒON, When It’s All Said and Done… Take Time (Epic): This gifted artist’s appealing baritone and strong songwriting made the biggest noise in R&B, driven by monster single “Heartbreak Anniversary.” But there’s plenty more convincing material where that came from. As far as adult-skewing releases in soul and hip-hop are concerned, this set has a lane to itself.

 

HDD also noted some possible additional contenders for nomination that are not at the moment considered favorites, but perfectly possible nominations. 

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Doja isn't getting it, let's be real now rip4 this is the first time I've seen anyone list Planet Her as an AOTY favorite.

The field is so weak right now that it's possible she could slip in as a nominee, but the list is still missing Positions, Evermore and possibly Certified Lover Boy. One slot will be reserved for a random act no one saw coming, and another slot will probably be reserved for a country album, which depending on how controversial they wanna be, could be either Chris Stapleton, Morgan Wallen or Kacey Musgraves. 

In the end though.. it's Sour vs. Montero. 

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1 hour ago, Snow said:

Doja isn't getting it, let's be real now rip4 this is the first time I've seen anyone list Planet Her as an AOTY favorite.

The field is so weak right now that it's possible she could slip in as a nominee, but the list is still missing Positions, Evermore and possibly Certified Lover Boy. One slot will be reserved for a random act no one saw coming, and another slot probably will be reserved for a country album, which depending on how controversial they wanna be, could be either Chris Stapleton, Morgan Wallen or Kacey Musgraves. 

In the end though.. it's Sour vs. Montero. 

A lot of those albums were listed as likely contenders, just not HDD’s picks for favorites. Evermore, Star Crossed, Positions, Justice, IICHLIWP, etc they reckon are contenders but yeah them being so confident in Doja is a little random. 

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GIVEON!!!!! oprah15

If he wins I'mma lose my shit!! 

Doja may get nominated simply based on how popular the album is. SOUR is definitely getting nominated. Same with Happier Than Ever because Billie. 

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