Hurricane Ian expected to become major hurricane by tonight or early Tuesday

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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — A hurricane warning and storm surge warning was issued for Tampa Bay Monday afternoon as Hurricane Ian strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said.

The NHC said that Ian strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. At 8 p.m., it had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and was moving northwest at 13 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 35 miles from the storm’s center.

The National Hurricane Center said that rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday night or early Tuesday as it nears western Cuba. It is expected to remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

The center of Ian is expected to near western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday before it emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. It will then pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

 

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/5-a-m-update-ian-becomes-hurricane/

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It’s looks really bad for Florida. 

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Current radar:

The eye of Ian is just west of Havana and coming off Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Rain and flooding will be a huge event for all of Florida as this storm is moving rather slow towards the Tampa region as a category 3 (or perhaps a 4). Key West is already at 4” in the last 24 hours and even Fort Lauderdale is over 2” from rain bands alone. Some parts of Florida may get up to 20” of rain by the time this system moves north into Georgia. Crazy numbers! 
 

The models have it hitting Venice, Florida on Wednesday evening. (Subject to change)

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 Now free from Cuba, Ian has a defined eye wall and looks impressive as a Category 3 Hurricane - possible 4 at this stage.

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Still Category 3, Ian is going through an eye wall replacement cycle which will make the eye larger and create a much bigger wind field before hitting the Florida coast about 2pm on Wednesday. 

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Now a Category 4 - Ian has gone more east than projected which means it arrives on shore earlier (approximately 2 pm EST) and further south (Cape Coral/Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda). Basically, the same path as Category 4 Hurricane Charley took in 2004. 

 

At 155 mph, Ian’s winds are 2 mph short of a Category 5. This storm will cross over to the Atlantic and predicted to make a second land fall in South Carolina on Friday as a Tropical Storm.

The islands that are in the way are Sanibel, Captiva, Boca Grande and Pine Island.

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Landfall at North Captiva Island just after 2pm EST 

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https://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-ian-makes-landfall-over-062235709.html
 

evidently this hurricane knocked the entire Cuban power grid offline.

[Chris 58,347]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/28/hurricane-ian-making-landfall-near-sanibel-captiva-islands-florida.html

Weakened down to category 1 after meeting land

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Orlando has flooded from 12+ inches of rain (so far) in 24 hours. Ian is now offshore, moving east off of Cape Canaveral with a defined center of circulation.